Let be a countable set, called the state space, and call each a state in . We say that is a measure on if for all . A measure on with total mass is called a distribution on . A matrix is called stochastic if every row is a distribution.
We work with a fixed probability space , which we will short hand as from now. A random variable with values in is a function . Put then defines a distribution on , and we can think of as modelling a system whose probabilty of being in state equals .
A sequence is a Markov chain with inital distribution and transition matrix if has distribution , namely and for conditioned on , the distribution of is and is independent of , namely Both the above chain as well as a finite chain will be denoted .
One can prove that a discrete time random process is if and only if for all Let be the unit mass at where if and whenever . The Markov property is the observation that if is then conditioned on , is and is independent of .
Whenever we write and by the Markov property at time the chain is so properties of the chain with respect to is independent of .
A random variable is called a stopping time if for all integers the event only depends on . The strong Markov property is the assertion that the Markov property holds for stopping times, more precisely, if is and is a stopping time of the chain, then conditioned on and the chain is and is independent of . An example of a stopping time is the first-passage time which appears in the ergodic theorem below.
Whereas specified one-step transition probabilities, we want to know the -steps transition probabilities. For this we first need to define countable-infinite matrix-matrix product, in the obvious way: regard as a row vector, and define Define to be the identify matrix with . Likewise we can define higher powers whose components are denoted by .
Let be . Then for all
In light of we call the step transition probability from to .
A measure is invariant with respect to if . Suppose be invaraint to and let be . Then for all integers is also . Let be finite. Suppose that there exists such that Then is an invariant distribution.
We say that state leads to state and write if there exists such that We say that communicates with and write if and . Communication classes are equivalent classes of . A chain or a transition matrix is said to be irreducible if its state space consists of a single communication class. Let be irreducible and have an invariant distribution . Suppose is , put . Then is where is given by and is irreducible with invariant distribution . is called the time-reversal chain of
The number of visits to a state in steps is defined Recall the first passage time above, and define . A state is reccurent if If additionally the expected return time is finite then we say that is positive recurrent. It can be proved that for an irreducible transition matrix that the existence of a single positive recurrent state is equivalent to the positive recurrence of all states. Using these we can state the following ergodic theorem
Let be irreducible and let be any distribution. If is then If the chain is positively recurrent, then for any bounded function we have where